As the sophistication of car subscription continues to evolve, savvy providers will continue to unlock new efficiencies and revenue opportunities introduced by the flexible nature of subscription.

Unlike leasing where the residual value must be considered at the end of the fixed lease term, car subscription allows for flexible disposal at the most optimal time during the vehicle lifecycle.

Managing Residual Value

In a traditional lease, the residual value of the vehicle is typically set at the beginning of the lease term and is a key factor in determining the monthly payment. At the end of the lease term, the lessee may have the option to purchase the vehicle at the predetermined residual value or return the vehicle to the lessor.

In contrast, car subscription services allow for more flexibility in disposing of the vehicle. Depending on the terms of the subscription, the customer may be able to swap out their vehicle for a different model or simply end their subscription at any time, without being locked into a long-term lease agreement.

This flexibility allows car subscription providers to more easily manage their vehicle inventory and adjust to changes in the market demand for certain models or vehicle types. Additionally, it can also help providers minimize the risks associated with fluctuations in residual values.

However, even with the flexibility that car subscription services offer, residual value management remains an important factor to consider. Providers must still accurately assess the value of their vehicle inventory to ensure that they are pricing their subscription services appropriately and minimizing their exposure to potential losses.

The Goldilocks Effect

The Goldilocks effect can come into play when determining the optimal disposal point for vehicles in a car subscription service. The Goldilocks effect refers to the idea that there is an optimal point or range that is neither too high nor too low, but just right.

If a provider disposes of a vehicle too early, they may miss out on potential revenue that could be generated by keeping the vehicle in the fleet for a longer period. Conversely, if the provider waits too long to dispose of a vehicle, the residual value may decrease beyond a feasible level and become a cost to the business even while earning revenue on subscription.

Therefore, providers must carefully analyze market demand, maintenance costs, and other factors to determine the optimal disposal point for each vehicle in their fleet, in order to strike the right balance and achieve the Goldilocks effect.

Calculating Optimal Residual Value for Disposal

Calculating the ideal disposal point for a vehicle in a car subscription business requires a combination of data analysis and industry knowledge. The following are some of the key factors to consider when determining the optimal disposal point:

Depreciation

Depreciation is a key factor in determining the residual value of a vehicle. Understanding the rate at which the vehicle's value depreciates over time is critical in setting the optimal disposal point.

Market demand

Understanding market demand for a particular make and model of vehicle is crucial in determining when to dispose of it. Providers should track market trends and make decisions about disposal based on current and projected demand.

Where demand drops for a sustained period, the provider may choose to bring forward disposal, for example, for some models.

Maintenance costs

The cost of maintaining a vehicle over time is another key factor to consider when setting the optimal disposal point. Providers should track maintenance costs and make decisions about disposal based on the cost of repairs and maintenance.

As cars age, some parts are more likely to fail, and as such, they can cost a lot more on average to keep on the road. This is another consideration when choosing the optimal disposal time.

Additionally, if a car is within its warranty period, maintenance costs are generally lower than when it is out of warranty.

Customer preferences

Customer preferences and feedback should also be taken into account when deciding when to dispose of a vehicle. Understanding which models are popular with customers and which ones are not can help providers make informed decisions about disposal.

Profitability

Providers should consider the profitability of each vehicle in their fleet when deciding when to dispose of it. Providers should aim to keep vehicles in the fleet as long as they are generating sufficient revenue to cover their costs and provide a reasonable profit.

To calculate the ideal disposal point for a vehicle, providers can use a range of data analytics tools, such as predictive modeling, machine learning algorithms, and trend analysis. By analyzing historical data on depreciation, maintenance costs, and customer preferences, providers can make informed decisions about when to dispose of a vehicle in order to maximize profitability while minimizing risk.